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BY MARC RINGEL, MD
January/February 2009

the Zen of Science

Scientific Truth: Fact or Fashion?

Before my grandmother married, she worked as a milliner, designing and constructing women’s hats. Despite her artistic eye and crafty hand, she was no slave to fashion, at least not by the time I knew her. Her standard going-out uniform was a navy blue dress that ran from clavicles to ankles, with chunky black shoes peeking out under her hemline.

She’d seen enough styles come and go in her long life to believe the whole fashion thing was a silly charade. Here’s how she described it. “People wear clothes until they get tired of them. Then they throw them in a barrel. When the barrel is full up they dump it out, start picking out clothes from the top of the pile, and throw them back in the barrel when they’re tired of them.”

At this stage of my career I could say the same about some medical practices, which seem to wax and wane at a rhythm reminiscent of clothing styles. Of course, the reasons for these vicissitudes in practice are deeper than the justification an editor at Vogue or Harper’s might give for why a particular hue is the “it” color for the current spring line.

As practitioners of scientific medicine, we physicians ought to base our therapeutic recommendations on the best objective studies. It’s the fashion today to call scientific practice “evidence-based medicine.”

If we’re all trying all the time to practice medicine based on the best of evidence, why then do things change so much--sometimes one way, then the other, then back? Because science is always uncovering new truths and these truths require interpretation and translation into practice. Unfortunately, we don’t understand nearly as much as we’d like to about anything, leaving us scientific doctors less certain of our facts, hence more prone to fashion, than we care to admit.

Post-menopausal estrogen replacement is a case-in-point. Early in my career it was to be avoided, then--for at least a couple of decades--to be strongly recommended, and now it’s to be avoided again, at almost any cost. Here are a few brief arguments, by no means an exhaustive list, categorized as “for,” “against,” and “maybe,” regarding whether to give hormones after a woman’s ovaries have quit making them:

FOR
• Osteoporosis is associated with loss of estrogen.
• Menopausal symptoms, including hot flashes, depression and agitation, are alleviated by estrogen.
• Women get much less heart disease than men do, maybe in part because estrogen lowers some cardiovascular risk factors.
• Estrogen maintains the tone of vaginal tissues, helping to improve sexual comfort and to reduce urinary incontinence.
• Sex hormones reduce skin aging.

AGAINST
• Estrogen increases the risk of breast cancer.
• Estrogen raises the risk of blood clots in the legs and pelvis, which can break loose, reach the lungs, and sometimes kill.
• Women who take estrogen have more gallstones.

MAYBE
• Decreased risk of Alzheimer’s disease.
• Increased risk of ovarian cancer.
• Increased risk of cervical cancer.
• Increased risk of liver cancer.

You get the idea. This is a very complicated issue, with lots of risks and benefits to be weighed. It’s not a static list, either. Breast cancer and cardiovascular disease are two items that have, over the years, moved more than once among the “for,” “against,” and “maybe” columns of the hormone replacement spreadsheet.

Studies had to enroll thousands of women to uncover a reliable association between post-menopausal estrogen replacement and breast cancer. In general, the smaller the effect and the longer the delay between cause and outcome, the larger and longer a study needs to be. Which is why it took so long for the party line on hormone replacement therapy to change. The effect is small and takes quite a while to show up.

As new studies come in, their validity needs to be examined. Were treatment and control groups comparable? Were the right outcomes measured? Were appropriate statistical techniques used to analyze the data?

There’s still the question, even with an impeccable study, of what to do with its results. I have to ask every time I read a new report, how similar were the study participants to my own patients? If, for example, the research was done by university-based sub-specialists with urban black women as subjects, how well does it apply to my overwhelmingly white and Hispanic family practice patients in rural Colorado?

Then there’s the matter of the individual patient. How do I weigh months of hot-flash induced insomnia against increased risk of breast cancer? What if the patient’s mother died of breast cancer? How about if her depression has been so affected by flashes and insomnia that her husband has been threatening to move out?

In my practice, I do make some exceptions to the general rule of discouraging post-menopausal estrogen. It turns out that a good share of the women for whom I continue to prescribe female hormone replacement have enough emotional issues that they figure, and I agree, they don’t need to add the hassle of resurgent menopausal symptoms to their already stressful lives.
At its best, practice is driven by science, with a whole lot of judgment. As social creatures, even doctors’ judgment has to be colored by fashion. Who says a little fashion consciousness is bad, anyway? I do know that if a doctor, male or female, came into my hospital room dressed like my grandma, I’d get right the hell out of there.

Marc Ringel has spent the majority of his career as a family doctor working in rural communities, including the last 12 years in Brush, Colorado. He has written extensively, for lay and professional audiences, about rural health, medical informatics and healing. Marc lives in Greeley with his wife and many pets.

 

 

 

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